The Data is Clear: A Second Road for Waikoloa Village is a Prudent, Life-Saving Investment
Expert Analysis: Waikoloa's Second Road is a Financial and Moral Imperative
The Wildfire Safety Advocates of Waikoloa (WSAW) have consistently argued that a second access road is essential for our community's survival. Now, we are presenting a powerful, data-driven case that confirms this project is not just a safety necessity but also a fiscally prudent investment for Hawai'i County.
Our new actuarial report, "Actuarial Justification for Waikoloa Second Road Investment," uses established economic models and lessons from recent tragedies to demonstrate that the cost of building the road is vastly outweighed by the value of the lives it will save.
Key findings from our expert analysis:
1. The Stakes Are Unacceptably High
Waikoloa Village is a "large cul-de-sac" with over 7,500 residents and only one way out. The 2021 near-miss evacuation proved our extreme vulnerability, with residents trapped in gridlock for over an hour. On a weekday, 850 schoolchildren would be in imminent danger. Without a second route, we face a potential mass-casualty event reminiscent of Lahaina or Paradise.
2. The Cost of Inaction is Measured in Lives and Billions of Dollars
Recent wildfire settlements provide a grim benchmark for the value of a life lost:
The Lahaina One ‘Ohana Fund values each life at approximately $1.5 million.
The U.S. Department of Transportation’s standard Value of a Statistical Life (VSL) is $13.7 million.
3. The Road Pays for Itself by Saving Just a Few Lives
The total estimated cost for the two-lane arterial road is $27.5 million ($2.5M for design, $25M for construction). Our analysis shows this investment is justified by an incredibly small number of prevented fatalities:
Using the USDOT's VSL, preventing just 2 fatalities over the road's lifespan justifies the entire cost.
Even using the more conservative Lahaina benchmark, preventing 18 fatalities breaks even.
Given that wildfires in similar communities have claimed dozens or even hundreds of lives, the potential life-saving benefit of this road is in the hundreds of millions to billions of dollars—far exceeding its cost.
4. Additional Co-Benefits Strengthen the Case
Beyond saving lives in a wildfire, a second road provides critical co-benefits:
Improved Emergency Response: Allows firefighters and paramedics to enter on one road while residents evacuate on the other.
General Resilience: Provides a redundant route for other emergencies like floods, landslides, or hazmat incidents.
Supports Responsible Growth: Accommodates future development and reduces daily traffic congestion on Waikoloa Road.
Conclusion: A Clear and Urgent Choice
The data leaves no room for doubt. Investing $27.5 million in a second road is the most responsible action the county can take to protect its residents and its financial future. The cost of building is a fraction of the cost—both human and financial—of a catastrophic failure to evacuate.
We urge the County Council to act immediately by allocating the $2.5 million needed for design and environmental review. This is a wise investment in our safety, our community, and our future.
